Blended CAC Framework: Meta → Shopify + Amazon + LTV Layer

Full-funnel attribution with 12-month lifetime value projection  ·  Jan 1 – Apr 13, 2026  ·  Bare Bones Broth

Page 1 of 4 Funnel Overview
Meta YTD Spend
$415,207
15 weeks · Jan–Apr 13
Shopify (Meta)
5,268
$250,904 revenue
Amazon (All Attr.)
3,084
$82,381 revenue
12-Mo LTV Projection New
$419K–$469K
Amazon repeat + halo
LTV-Adjusted MER New
1.01x–1.13x
vs. 0.69x first-order only
Full Funnel: Meta Impression → Purchase → 12-Month LTV
Landing pages split into two distinct paths: direct Shopify purchases (teal, terminates) and Amazon Button clicks (orange, flows into Attribution). LTV layer shows projected customer value beyond first purchase.
AWARENESS INTEREST DECISION INTENT CONVERSION RETENTION + LTV 17.1M impressions CPM $14.18 CTR 0.85% 119,130 sessions CPC $1.67 CVR 4.4% 5,268 Shopify orders ✓ Direct Revenue Btn 3.9% 4,628 Amz btn clicks ATTRIBUTION Meta 28.6% 4,209 clicks Non-Meta 71.4% 14,717 total clicks PURCHASES 3,084 CVR 21% ADD TO CART 2,195 ATC 35.9% BROWSED 9,438 only TOP TIER 17.3% $123.78 / yr SUB & SAVE 19.9% $93.57 / yr PROMISING 42.8% $24.38 / yr AT RISK + HIBER. 20% ~$30 / yr BLENDED 12-MO LTV $55 weighted avg / new cohort Top Tier 2-yr upside: $247 S&S subscribers at scale 1st-order ROAS: 0.69x 12-mo ROAS: 1.01–1.13x Meta CPM: $14.18 | CPC: $1.67 | Shopify CVR: 4.4% | Amz Btn Rate: 3.9% | Amz Purchase CVR: 21.0% | Meta Share: 28.6% | Meta CAC (Shopify): $37.80 | Meta CAC (Blended): $17.31 | Contribution Margin: 31.3% (FBA actual) Bare Bones
Bare Bones Broth  ·  Blended CAC Framework v3 + LTV Layer Data: Meta Ads Manager · Shopify · Amazon Seller Central · Amazon Brand Analytics · S&S Performance Page 1 of 4

Customer LTV Intelligence Amazon Analytics

Segment breakdown from Amazon Customer Loyalty Analytics (FY2025) · ROAS trajectory as Amazon repeat revenue compounds

Page 2 of 4 LTV + ROAS
LTV Segment Paths: Where Do Meta-Acquired Customers Go?
Of 6,643 total attributed customers (recommended scenario), Amazon Customer Loyalty Analytics projects these annual spending patterns — sourced directly from Amazon's predictive model.
17.3%
Top Tier
Customers1,149
Amazon LTV / yr$123.78
Orders / yr4.44
Avg order value$27.90
Reorder interval45.7 days
Repeat rate100%
2-yr LTV$247.56
Projected Amazon revenue:
$142,224 Yr 1  ·  $284,448 Yr 2 cumulative
19.9%
S&S Subscribers
Customers1,322
Amazon LTV / yr$93.57
Revenue / mo$13.04
Implied churn~10–11% / mo
Coupon-driven~70% ⚠
LTV @ 5% churn$119.92
LTV @ 5% · 15 mo$195.60
Projected Amazon revenue:
$123,699 Yr 1  ⚠ coupon dependency risk
42.8%
Promising
Customers2,843
Amazon LTV / yr$24.38
Orders / yr1.12
Avg order value$21.77
Reorder interval71 days
Repeat rate9.74%
Upgrade to Top Tier+$99.40 / yr
Projected Amazon revenue:
$69,313 Yr 1  ·  largest growth segment
20.0%
At Risk / Hibernating
Customers1,329
Amazon LTV / yr$30.65 avg
At Risk orders / yr1.42
Hiber. orders / yr1.17
At Risk repeat rate23.85%
Hiber. repeat rate13.17%
Re-engagementPriority
Projected Amazon revenue:
$40,724 Yr 1  ·  win-back campaigns needed
LTV-Adjusted ROAS Timeline New
How Meta's return on $415,207 evolves as Amazon repeat purchases and halo revenue compound. Traffic-proportional (recommended) attribution scenario.
First Order
0.69x
$288K rev / $415K spend
Below breakeven
Month 3
0.78x
+Amazon early repeats
S&S first cycles in
Month 6
0.90x
+S&S + Amazon halo
Approaching breakeven
Month 12
1.01–1.13x
+DTC repeat layer
Breakeven crossed ✓
Month 24
1.30–1.50x
Top Tier Yr 2 value
Top Tier cohort: 3.96x
Key insight: The first-order 0.69x ROAS is not a loss — it's a customer acquisition investment. Amazon's Customer Loyalty Analytics confirms Top Tier customers generate $123.78/year with a 45-day reorder cycle. At your current $62.50 blended CAC, a customer who reaches Top Tier delivers a 2.0x Year-1 return on Amazon alone — before any DTC repeat is counted. The business question is not "is our ROAS good?" but "what percentage of acquired customers reach Top Tier, and how do we increase it?"
Bare Bones Broth  ·  Blended CAC Framework v3 + LTV Layer Source: Amazon Customer Loyalty Analytics FY2025 · Amazon S&S Performance Report Jan 13 – Apr 13, 2026 Page 2 of 4

CAC Strategy & Decision Matrix

Three attribution scenarios · LTV-justified spend thresholds · Amazon contribution margin basis (31.3% actual)

Page 3 of 4 CAC Framework
Blended CAC Scenarios — LTV ROAS View
Three models for attributing Amazon purchases to Meta spend, showing first-order ROAS and 12-month LTV-adjusted ROAS side by side.
Conservative
Click-Share Attribution
$65.99
Meta gets 28.6% of Amazon purchases — matching its share of Amazon link clicks. Amz: 1,024 · Total: 6,292 customers.
Most defensible.
First-Order ROAS0.67x
12-Mo LTV ROAS (Amazon)0.97x
12-Mo LTV ROAS (+halo)1.08x ✓
24-Mo ROAS (Top Tier path)1.38x
Directly measured. Minimum defensible LTV ROAS.
Recommended ★
Traffic-Proportional
$62.50
Meta gets 38.4% of Amazon purchases — matching its share of total website traffic (GA4). Amz: 1,375 · Total: 6,643 customers.
Accounts for brand awareness halo.
First-Order ROAS0.69x
12-Mo LTV ROAS (Amazon)0.99x
12-Mo LTV ROAS (+halo)1.13x ✓
24-Mo ROAS (Top Tier path)1.45x
Complete picture. Best for scaling decisions.
Aggressive
Full Credit Attribution
$46.92
Meta gets 100% credit for all Amazon purchases. Assumes every buyer was Meta-influenced. Amz: 3,582 · Total: 8,850 customers.
Not independently defensible.
First-Order ROAS0.83x
12-Mo LTV ROAS (Amazon)1.22x ✓
12-Mo LTV ROAS (+halo)1.36x ✓
24-Mo ROAS (Top Tier path)1.74x
Validate with Amazon Attribution tags before using.
What CAC Is Justified? — LTV-Based Decision Matrix New
Maximum allowable Meta CAC at different return targets. Actual FBA CM: 31.3% (COGS 28.1% + Referral 15.0% + FBA avg 19.0% + ops), per 2026 FBA Margin Analysis.
Customer Type Amazon LTV (1-yr) CM @ 31.3% Max CAC @ 1.5x Max CAC @ 2.0x Max CAC @ 3.0x vs. Current $62.50
Blended all customers $43.94$13.75$9.17$6.88$4.58 ⬇ Underwater
Hibernating / At Risk $30.65$9.59$6.39$4.80$3.20 ⬇ Underwater
Promising customers $24.38$7.63$5.09$3.82$2.54 ⬇ Underwater
S&S subscriber (10% churn) $93.57$29.29$19.52$14.64$9.76 ⬇ Stretched
Top Tier (1-year) Current target $123.78$38.74$25.83$19.37$12.91 ⬇ Needs 2-yr view
Top Tier (2-year) Amazon ceiling $247.56$77.49$51.66$38.74$25.83 ~1.24x — see p.4
S&S subscriber (5% churn, 15-mo) $195.60$61.22$40.81$30.61$20.41 ~0.98x near breakeven
Bottom line: At 31.3% actual FBA CM, Amazon Top Tier 2yr implies 1.24x on $62.50 CAC — below the 1.5x target on Amazon alone. Full justification requires the blended view (Page 4): Shopify Subscription delivers 1.26x standalone; combined Subscription + Amazon reaches 2.50x. Identify which Meta audiences convert to Subscription or Top Tier, then scale.
Bare Bones Broth  ·  Blended CAC Framework v3 + LTV Layer  ·  Jan 1 – Apr 13, 2026 Meta Ads Manager · Shopify · Amazon Seller Central · Amazon Brand Analytics · Amazon Customer Loyalty Analytics (FY2025) · S&S Performance (Jan 13 – Apr 13, 2026) Page 3 of 4

Shopify LTV + Cross-Channel Blended Analysis New

Shopify orders export Jan 2024 – Apr 2026 · 58,606 paid orders · 312,474 customers · Meta cohort 3,702 customers (2024–2025)

Page 4 of 4 Blended LTV
Shopify 12-Mo LTV
$49.05
Meta-acquired cohort
measured directly from orders
8.0% repeat rate
Amazon 12-Mo LTV
$55.00
Blended across RFM segments
Amazon Customer Analytics
20.7% of Meta customers
Conservative Blended LTV
$60.44
Shopify + Amazon halo
weighted by channel mix
vs. $62.50 CAC → 0.97x
Cross-Channel Customer LTV
$104.05
Buys on both Shopify + Amazon
12-month combined value
vs. $62.50 CAC → 1.66x ✓
$251.93
Subscription 12-Mo LTV
Highest segment on Shopify
75.4%
Repeat Rate
vs. 8.0% Meta avg
4.45x
Avg Orders / Customer
vs. 1.10x Meta avg
2,747
Active Sub Customers
$19K–21K/mo recurring
Strategic imperative:
A Meta customer who converts to Shopify subscription = $251.93/yr + Amazon halo = $300+ blended LTV. Engineer every Meta creative and post-purchase flow toward subscription conversion.
Shopify LTV by Acquisition Channel
12-month measured LTV per customer. Meta is mid-tier — Email and Subscription channels show the ceiling to optimize toward.
Meta Paid Social
$49.05
Customers3,702 (26.1%)
First AOV$43.92
Repeat rate8.0%
Repeat AOV$42.68
Email / SMS
$70.49
Customers393 (2.8%)
First AOV$56.49
Repeat rate16.0%
LTV vs Meta+44%
TikTok Shop
$18.20
Customers9,780 (69.0%)
First AOV$15.21
Repeat rate14.4%
LTV vs Meta-63%
Subscription
$251.93
Customers305 (2.1%)
First AOV$61.00
Repeat rate75.4%
LTV vs Meta+414%
Blended LTV — CAC Justification Matrix
Cross-channel LTV at 31.3% FBA CM (conservative — Shopify CM ~55%+). What $62.50 CAC returns at each path.
Customer Path Shopify LTV Amazon LTV Blended Total CM @ 31.3%* vs. $62.50 CAC
Meta → Shopify only $49.05$0$49.05$15.35 ⬇ 0.25x
Meta → Amazon only $0$55.00$55.00$17.22 ⬇ 0.28x
Blended (weighted mix) $49.05$11.39$60.44$18.92 ⬇ 0.30x yr1
Meta → Shopify + Amazon $49.05$55.00$104.05$32.57 ⬆ 0.52x
Meta → Amz Top Tier (2-yr) $49.05$247.56$296.61$92.84 ✓ 1.49x
Meta → Shopify Subscription $251.93+halo$251.93+$78.85 ✓ 1.26x ★
Subscription + Amazon (2-yr) $251.93$247.56$499.49$156.34 ✓ 2.50x
The unlock: At 31.3% FBA CM, yr1 blended covers ~30¢ per $1 CAC. Subscription converts hit 1.26x on day 1 (stronger on true Shopify CM ~55%+). Meta campaigns targeting subscription sign-ups are the clearest path to positive payback.
Bare Bones Broth  ·  Blended CAC Framework v3 + LTV Layer  ·  Jan 1 – Apr 13, 2026 Source: Shopify Orders Export (Jan 2024 – Apr 2026) · Shopify Customers Export · 58,606 paid orders · 312,474 customers Page 4 of 4