Stockouts are eating our growth

YTD 2026 revenue by channel, with every detected stockout window and a confidence-banded projection of what we left on the table.

Bare Bones Broth Co.
YTD 2026
Sources: Shopify · Amazon Seller US (FBA)

Daily revenue with OOS impact

Solid lines: actual daily revenue. Red dots: start of a stockout window — hover for SKU, duration, and date range. Dashed lines: counterfactual projection (what revenue likely would have been) with 80/95% confidence bands.

Shopify gross sales
Amazon US gross sales
Shopify projection
Amazon projection
80/95% confidence band
OOS event (hover for details)

Stockout windows YTD

Shopify = variant inventory hit 0. Amazon = active FBA ASIN with $0 in sales after consistent prior selling.

How the projection works

For every OOS day, we estimate counterfactual revenue using a trailing 14-day average of revenue on days when the affected SKU was selling. Confidence bands come from the standard deviation of that window.

  • Point estimate (p50): mean trailing run-rate.
  • 80% band: mean ± 0.84σ (1-in-5 outside).
  • 95% band: mean ± 1.96σ (1-in-20 outside).

Lost-revenue figures apply a channel-share multiplier (Shopify ≈ 30%, Amazon ≈ 25%) — other SKUs still sell during a single-variant stockout.

Lost revenue YTD: (range to ).