Bare Bones · Demand Forecast

Projected 2026 Summer Sale

Five-day event, June 8–12, 2026. Built from the 2025 Summer Flash Sale, Bare Bones' own 2026 promotions (Fresh Start & Spring), the current year-over-year run-rate, and Klaviyo list growth. Units forecast and year-over-year benchmarks vs. both the 2025 Summer Sale and the 2026 Spring Sale included.

Base case ≈ $57.2K gross ≈ 1,960 units Range $32K–$79K Master list 85.6K

The projection — three scenarios

Each scenario applies a demand lift multiple to the current pre-sale baseline of $4,572/day gross (May 18–31, 2026), over five sale days. YoY shown vs. the 2025 Summer Sale and the 2026 Spring Sale.

Conservative · 1.40× lift

$32.0K

gross · $27.2K total · ~1,097 units

vs Summer '25+63% $ · +45% u

vs Spring '26−53% $ · −49% u

Repeats 2025's light 20%-off flash. Growth purely from the bigger base.

Recommended

Base case · 2.50× lift

$57.2K

gross · $37.7K total · ~1,959 units

vs Summer '25+191% $ · +159% u

vs Spring '26−17% $ · −10% u

Standard 2026 playbook — "up to 30% off," full multi-email cadence — with a summer haircut below Spring.

Aggressive · 3.47× lift

$79.3K

gross · $52.4K total · ~2,719 units

vs Summer '25+304% $ · +259% u

vs Spring '26+15% $ · +26% u

Replicates the March Spring Sale exactly — same depth, cadence, and lift.

Year-over-year benchmarking

How each scenario stacks up against the two most relevant prior events — the 2025 Summer Sale (seasonality) and the 2026 Spring Sale (current-year promo ceiling).

Event / scenario	Gross	vs Summer '25	vs Spring '26	Units	vs Summer '25	vs Spring '26
2025 Summer Sale (actual)	$19,625	—	−71%	757	—	−65%
2026 Spring Sale (actual)	$68,745	+250%	—	2,165	+186%	—
Conservative	$32,004	+63%	−53%	1,097	+45%	−49%
Base case	$57,150	+191%	−17%	1,959	+159%	−10%
Aggressive	$79,324	+304%	+15%	2,719	+259%	+26%

Read: Even the conservative case beats Summer '25 by ~45–63% on the strength of the bigger base. The base case lands just below the Spring Sale (−10% units), reflecting summer being a softer broth season; matching Spring's execution (aggressive) would push past it (+26% units).

Klaviyo list growth & promotional events

Marketable email profiles over 24 months (cumulative net opt-ins, anchored to today's master list of 85,608). Markers show major promotions; the slate marker flags the Sept '25 bot/Tie-list cleanup behind the dip.

Marketable email profiles Major sale List hygiene (bot / Tie-list removal) Summer Sale 2026 (upcoming)

Net growth: ~48,800 (Jun '24) → 85,608 (May '26), +75% in 24 months. Growth is steepest after the Holiday → Fresh Start → Spring run (Dec '25–Feb '26, +18,600 net), when sale pop-ups and traffic drive opt-ins. The Aug–Sep '25 dip is the deliberate bot / Tie-list removal, not churn. The Summer Sale lands on a list ~29% larger and far more engaged than the 2025 version reached.

Projected sales by product variant — UNITS

Units = projected gross per variant ÷ that variant's average selling price. Mix = 50% Spring-Sale sale-time behavior + 50% current summer demand (hydration tilt). Base case is the planning number; conservative/aggressive bound it.

Variant	Conservative	Base case (units)	Aggressive
Total units	1,097	1,959	2,719
2025 Summer Sale (actual units)	757 units → base case +159%
2026 Spring Sale (actual units)	2,165 units → base case −10%

Stock priorities (base case): Instant Bone Broth Beef (~395) and Classic Chicken (~373) lead, followed by the Variety Pack (~323). On the hydration side, plan ~169 Lemonade, ~109 Collagen Sampler Packs, ~79 Fruit Punch and ~65 Passion Fruit — these over-index in summer. Bundle SKUs (Variety Pack, Multi Combo, Samplers) move heavily during sales, so weight inventory toward them.

Same forecast, revenue view (gross $)

Variant	Mix	Conservative	Base case	Aggressive
Total gross	100%	$32,004	$57,150	$79,324

Category split (base case): Instant Bone Broth ≈ $43.5K · Collagen Drink Mix ≈ $9.6K · Refrigerated/Organic ≈ $4.0K.

Why 2026 outperforms: the base business is bigger

Metric	May 2025	May 2026	YoY
Total sales (month)	$84,941	$122,546	+44.3%
Gross sales (month)	$102,764	$137,410	+33.7%
Orders (month)	2,385	2,551	+7.0%
Average order value	$35.26	$47.30	+34.1%
Pre-sale baseline (gross/day)	$2,823	$4,572	+62%

Read: orders grew modestly (+7%) but revenue jumped ~35–44% because AOV climbed from ~$35 to ~$47 (pricing + mix toward multi-packs and Collagen Drink Mix). The sale monetizes similar traffic at a higher ticket.

Recommendations to hit base case (or better)

Match the 2026 sale playbook, not 2025's flash. The light 20%-off flash delivered only 1.4×; Fresh Start and Spring ("up to 30% off," multi-push) delivered 2.0–3.5×. One email won't reach base case.
Run 4–6 touches over the 5 days (launch → recipe/value → mid-sale → plain-text → last-chance), mirroring the Spring cadence that produced 3.47×.
Layer SMS. The 2025 SMS sale send hit a 20.8% click rate — your best-converting sale channel. Use it day 1 and on the last-chance send.
Stock for the hydration tilt & bundles. Over-index Collagen Drink Mix (Lemonade, Passion Fruit, Fruit Punch), Samplers, and Variety/Multi packs — they spike in both summer and sale events.
Watch net, not just gross. At 30% off, ~a third of gross goes to discount (total/gross ≈ 0.66). Anchor the deal on multi-packs to protect margin.

Sources & method. Shopify ShopifyQL (daily & variant sales incl. net_items_sold; YoY monthly) and Klaviyo (campaign reports, list profile counts, subscribe/unsubscribe metric aggregates) for barebonesbroth.com. Sale windows detected from Klaviyo naming + Shopify spikes. Lift = sale-period gross/day ÷ trailing-baseline gross/day. Base-case lift (2.50×) sits between Fresh Start (2.00×) and Spring (3.47×), haircut for summer seasonality. Units = projected gross per variant ÷ blended avg unit price. List curve = cumulative net opt-ins (Subscribed − Unsubscribed from Email Marketing), anchored to the current master-list count of 85,608. Directional planning estimates, not guarantees.

Generated June 3, 2026 · for the June 8–12, 2026 Summer Sale.