Bare Bones Broth · 31 weeks (Jun 1 – Dec 28) · by variant SKU, rolled to family · calibrated Apr–May run-rates × DTC seasonality × repeat 2025 promo events.
Weekly forecast by product family (units)
Stacked by family. Four repeat-2025 promo spikes: Summer (Jun 29), Fall (Sep 21), Friendsgiving (Nov 16), BFCM (Nov 23); December lifts on holiday seasonality.
How the promos & seasonality are rationalized
- Summer Sale — week of Jun 29 (×1.31): 2025's July-4 week ran 1,099 vs ~840 base (1.31×). → ~1,070 units, $30k.
- Fall Sale — week of Sep 21 (×2.15): 2025's Fall Sale week hit 1,690 vs ~785 base (2.15×) — the biggest single-week multiple. → ~1,860 units, $51k.
- Friendsgiving — week of Nov 16 (×2.09): 2025 ran 2,242 vs ~1,073 base. → ~2,050 units, $57k — the peak week of the period.
- Black Friday / Cyber Monday — week of Nov 23 (×1.48): 2025 ran 1,593 vs ~1,073. → ~1,450 units, $40k (on top of the elevated Nov/Dec baseline).
- DTC holiday seasonality: 2025 indices vs May — Oct 1.18, Nov 1.16, Dec 2.11. December more than doubles on gifting, independent of named promos. Summer (Jun–Aug ~0.90) is the DTC low.
- Calibrated from the look-back: bases set off recent actuals — Variety Pack (214/wk) and Beef (212/wk) now lead; the flat Playground baseline that under-modeled bundles is corrected.
ASP $28 (IB + bundles), $25 (EDM). Promos applied store-wide for one week each. Sep seasonality smoothed to 1.0 (2025 had a pre-Fall-Sale dip). Adjust promo dates/depths as the 2026 calendar firms up.