January 1 – April 30, 2026 vs January 1 – April 30, 2025
The throughline
Meta spend more than quintupled ($94K → $480K), but Meta purchases stayed flat and new Shopify customers actually fell 22%. The result: Meta cost per purchase blew out from $14.48 to $75.74. Amazon, by contrast, scaled spend modestly (+32%) in step with its sales (+40%). The blended math only works because of lifetime value — a cross-channel customer is worth ~$104 over 12 months — but first-order acquisition on the DTC/Meta side is deeply underwater.
The five KPIs
Meta Spend
$480.3K
PY: $93.7K
▲ 413%
Amazon Spend (booked)
$541.7K
PY: $409.2K
▲ 32%
New Shopify Customers
7,824
PY: 9,997
▼ 22%
Combined 12-Mo LTV
$104.05
Shopify $49 + Amazon $55
prior framework
Meta Cost / Purchase
$75.74
PY: $14.48
▲ 423%
Meta spend & cost-per-purchase: Meta Ads via Windsor. New customers: Shopify Analytics (ShopifyQL). Amazon Spend: 6210 Consumer Advertising from the Amazon-class P&L (platform connector caps at 60 days). LTV: Blended CAC + LTV Framework (see link below).
What happened on Meta, month by month
Meta spend climbed every month — 2026 vs 2025
Monthly Meta ad spend ($). 2025 had pulled back hard by April; 2026 ran 4–5× hotter all quarter.
…but cost per purchase climbed with it
Monthly Meta cost per purchase ($). Each incremental dollar bought a more expensive conversion.
⚠️ Spend up 413%, purchases down 2%. Meta drove 6,341 purchases in 2026 vs 6,470 in 2025 — essentially flat output for 5× the input. The entire spend increase landed in higher cost per purchase, not more customers.
Amazon scaled the right way
Channel
Ad Spend 2026
Ad Spend 2025
Δ Spend
Δ Channel Sales
Meta → Shopify (DTC)
$480,267
$93,683
+413%
+7.7% gross sales
Amazon Ads (booked)
$541,721
$409,169
+32%
+40.1% gross sales
Amazon grew ad spend roughly in line with sales (+32% spend vs +40% sales) — efficiency held or improved. Meta grew spend 54× faster than the sales it generated (+413% spend vs +7.7% Shopify sales). The two channels are running opposite playbooks.
Why the business still pencils: lifetime value
First-order economics on Meta are underwater — but customers come back. Per the Blended CAC + LTV Framework, a Meta-acquired Shopify customer is worth $49.05 over 12 months, an Amazon customer $55.00, and a customer who shops both channels $104.05. The weighted blended 12-month LTV across the acquired base is $60.44. That LTV — not first-order ROAS — is what carries the blended return from ~0.69× at first order toward ~1.0–1.1× at 12 months.
12-Month LTV (prior framework)
Value / customer
Note
Shopify (Meta-acquired)
$49.05
8.0% repeat rate
Amazon (blended segments)
$55.00
Loyalty-segment weighted
Cross-channel customer (both)
$104.05
Shopify + Amazon combined
Weighted blended (acquired base)
$60.44
Used for 12-mo LTV-adjusted ROAS
LTV figures are referenced from the existing Blended CAC + LTV Framework dashboard, not recomputed for this window. A true period-specific Shopify+Amazon customer LTV can't be derived live because Amazon (FBA) doesn't expose customer-level identity.
Pressure-test against the financials
Cross-check
From connectors
From P&L
Verdict
Meta + Amazon ad spend vs total Digital 6210 Consumer Advertising
$1,021,988
$1,112,081
✓ ~92% (rest = Google/TikTok/other)
Meta spend vs Shopify-class 6210 Consumer Advertising
$480,267
$570,360
✓ Meta = 84% of Shopify ad spend
Amazon booked ad spend vs Amazon-class 6210
n/a (60-day cap)
$541,721
P&L used as source
Shopify sales: ShopifyQL vs P&L Shopify Total Income
$528,053
$550,043
✓ within 4%
Shopify orders 2026 vs 2025
12,274 vs 15,510
—
▼ 21% (tracks new-customer decline)
The connector data reconciles cleanly to the books: Meta + Amazon ad spend accounts for ~92% of booked digital marketing, and Shopify revenue matches within 4%. The numbers behind this story are trustworthy.